New Year Ceylon longings

Holidays - yay! A very complicated year draws to a close and we are all taking time off. The markets delivered a fine Santa rally in the closing days before Christmas as everyone just got fed up with the nagging issues of the Eurozone. In the US the economy continued to self-medicate with a long series of above-consensus data coming out over the past few months. Labour data in particular, key to any sustainable recovery, has surprised on the upside and there is a good chance of another 200 plus private payrolls release some time in the next month or two. But we must stay vigilant for disaster-myopia - the natural human desire to relegate thoughts about a major market dislocation to the nether regions of the brain. Europe remains on course for disaster. Back in SA the touring Sri Lankan cricket team is in the process of extracting revenge for the crushing defeat in the first test by building up an unassailable lead in the second test in Durban. It looks like they'll win this one, meaning that the decider in Cape Town in the New Year could be a nail-biter. New Year's test match in Cape Town - ahh such great memories over the years! The pic is from a QSL from the Ceylon Broadcasting Corporation, heard in Cape Town in 1971 on shortwave 19mb.

Fussing in the Falklands

Another spat is brewing in the Falkland Islands. Argentina has banned boats flying the Falklands flag from entering its ports and succeeded in persuading Uruguay, Brazil and Paraguay (its Mercosur partners) to do the same. Britain has taken a dim view of this. It's not that important really; after all there are only about 25 boats that fly the Falklands flag and they could swap that for the British flag and enter these ports without problems. We are coming up to the 30th anniversary of the Falklands war when Britain under Maggie Thatcher repelled an Argentine invasion force. The confrontation comes just a few weeks after the UK announced plans to create a Marine Protection Zone on 1 million sq km around the South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, aimed at greater protection for killer whales, penguins, walruses and seals. Although South Georgia is about 800 miles from the Argentine coast, Argentina responded angrily that this was an invasion of its sovereignty. It's amazing that these two countries, UK and Argentina, can get so upset about these tiny islands. The QSL is one of my best - Falkland Islands Broadcasting Service, heard in Cape Town on short-wave 90mb in 1972. It was one of those beautiful things: the station was playing record requests and I knew several of the songs played. Heard using a Trio 9R-59 receiver with a 30m wire antenna in the garden in Kenilworth, Cape Town.

Brits bashed, Hungary hesitates, France fabulates

Last weekend the British press overflowed with coverage of David Cameron's veto of the Eurozone deal to tighten monitoring and surveillance rules for fiscal disobedience. The Brits feared that a treaty change drawing in the wider Europe-27 countries was the wedge to open the door to further incursions by Brussels in areas like banking regulation, labour laws and tax harmonisation. Granted, Cameron's veto was not the most diplomatic of moves. But the reaction by Germany and France was a convenient cover for the fact that the deal struck did nothing about the underlying debt and austerity problem which is steadily pushing the Eurozone towards disaster - one that could affect the global economy. Other non-European Euro economies also had their doubts, including Hungary and Sweden. Hungary is particularly opposed to any tax harmonisation. This is also true of countries within the Zone like Ireland and Malta which have very favourable tax regimes for investors. However, they elected not to make a stand at the time. Even France will baulk at having the man from Brussels interfering with its fiscal sovereignty. Much water will still pass under this bridge and the British will soon find themselves much less isolated. The QSL is from Radio Budapest, heard on shortwave in Cape Town on the 25 mb way back in 1967. This is one of the more attractive cards from the communist countries of the day.

Kabila by return post

For the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Congo-Kinshasa, plus ca change..... nothwithstanding the Arab Spring leading to sweeping change across the top of the African continent, the latest elections in DRC resulted in another win for Joseph Kabila, in power since 2001. DRC has a long history of flawed elections and this was no exception. Kabila gets another 5-year term having apparently won  49% of the vote. Independent observers gave this election a report card of 40% with wide-scale corruption alleged. Hundreds of polling station results in the capital, Kinshasa, a stronghold of opposition candidate Etienne Tshisekedi, were 'lost' while at some Kabila bases voter turnout was close to 100%. This is a poor ending for elections on the continent in 2011 and a possible harbinger of disappointment in the year ahead, with many African countries due to hold polls, including: Angola, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. My link with DRC is Charlie the parking attendant at Muizenberg corner, my favourite surfing spot in Cape Town. He's a friendly chap and I always get a chance to practice my rudimentary French with him while zipping up my wetsuit and taking the ski and paddle out of the car. The QSL is from the Office Congolais des Postes in Kinshasa. This was a voice mirror utility transmission heard in Cape Town on 23 mHz back in 1972. It was broadcasting towards Athens. In those days you could write to 'Office Congolais des Postes, Kinshasa' and get a full pre-printed card like this one, if you were lucky!

Cashing in early for Christmas in Connecticut

Just back from a week in the USA seeing clients. I arrived last Saturday in NYC in the middle of Thanksgiving weekend. It was unseasonably warm and people just poured on to the streets. I took a stroll down 5th Avenue and was almost crushed to a pulp. The whole Christmas accelerator is pushed up to max  - one lady pepper-sprayed her way to the front of a sale queue at Walmart in LA. I mean you know that Americans love to spend but this is ridiculous. You can't walk anywhere and there's Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, Jingle Bells et al blasting out. Salvation Army everywhere. Actually I love their kerbside bands but.... Even in the delis where I prefer to get my supper to paying over the odds in the hotel, carols are pumping out in dreary sequence even though half the deli owners don't even celebrate Christmas, except when they're tallying up the day's sales. Three fund managers from Connecticut made the news by winning $254m in the lottery, with over $100m cash up front. This happened to be more than their business had under management so quite a change of life for them. No one was quite sure if it was really their ticket or they were collecting on behalf of someone else who wanted to remain anonymous. I've often thought it makes sense for a money man to win the lottery because he has the best clue about what to do with the cash. The QSL is from WPOP Hartford, Connecticut on 1410 kHz - a low-powered AM station heard in Cape Town in 1968 and still going strong today.

Can Rajoy bring joy?

Spain to the polls and it's likely to be a landslide victory for the right-wing Spanish People's Party headed by Mariano Rajoy. It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. Spanish bond yields have ticked up steadily in recent months in spite of the latest Eurozone deal which was supposed to draw a firewall around Spanish and Italian debt. Spain's sovereign debt to GDP ratio is not that high - at below 70% it is lower than both France and Germany and way below Italy. But it has significant private sector debt, both households and corporates. A drive along the coastal south-east is a reminder of the crazy property boom that was pyramided on top of cheap Euro finance. Governments have fallen in all the GIPSI countries now and the new guys have simply been saddled with the problems of the old guys. All of them are pushing through tough austerity packages aimed at controlling government deficits. But this is also stifling domestic demand and pushing their economies into a spiral of low or negative growth, growing debt and rising bond yields. They also need to push reform to free up economic activity, reduce government ownership and stimulate entrepreneurship. These things are only happening at a glacial pace. Mariano Rajoy was brought up and educated in Galicia, in north-west Spain. The QSL is from Radio Nacional de Espana, La Coruna, on the Galician coast. It's one of a bunch of Spanish AM QSLs I've collected, often listening in when they switch to local programming for short spells in the evening.

Pup can't pip Proteas

This week gave me the chance to see lovely shots of Table Mountain on TV here in London. Newlands, the beautiful cricket ground in Cape Town, was the scene of the first test between SA and Australia. I've been there so many times. The game was an amazing statistical anomaly. On what seemed to be a difficult, damp pitch on the first day, Michael Clarke, the Ozzie captain, made an imperious 151 but all the other batsmen struggled. On the second day, the Proteas capitulated making less than 100 and leaving themselves, seemingly, well out of the game. The SA seamers then ripped Oz to pieces, reducing them to 21/9 before they eked out 47. This was, I think, the lowest score by Australia since World War 2. Clarke, known as Pup, managed just 2 in his second knock. The Proteas then knocked off the 236 needed to win with 8 wickets to spare, making it look so easy. It was a story book ending for Protea's captain, Graeme Smith. Hashim Amla made his century, getting there with 4 successive fours and then went out. That gave Smith just enough time to make his 100 and hit the winning runs. The QSL is from Pup's home state, New South Wales. The station is 2AY, Albury, heard in Morgan Bay, South Africa in 1992. This is only 2kW, one of my best AM catches.

Da wheel turns for De Beers

The Oppenheimer family which originally wrested control of De Beers diamond mining empire in 1927 has sold its entire remaining back stake to Anglo American Corp. Things do go through circles! The Oppenheimers had established Anglo American as a gold mining company in 1917 with the backing of the legendary JP Morgan. De Beers has a chequered history, for a long time controlling a global diamond monopoly which made its employees very much persona non grata in the USA. It was founded by Cecil John Rhodes whose estate still funds Rhodes scholarships for outstanding pupils around the world, including one every year from my old school, Bishops, in Cape Town. De Beers was named for Diederick Arnoldus and Johannes Nicholas De Beer, the brothers on whose farm a large diamond was discovered in 1871. This started a stampede to establish claims - 1000s of diggers turned what was initially a small hill into the Big Hole, the heart of the town of Kimberley today, which eventually yielded 3 tons of diamonds. The town exploded in size and was the first in the southern hemisphere to install electric street lighting. These days the biggest share of De Beers diamonds comes from huge mines in Botswana, a major reason for the country's exceptional growth over many years, giving it the best credit rating in Africa. The QSL is from Radio Botswana heard in Cape Town in 1967. This was just after independence in 1966 which is why the world 'Bechuanaland' is crossed out and replaced with 'Botswana.' I actually heard the independence broadcast in September 1966, one of the first things I picked up as a schoolboy DXer. 

Cyprus slips on Greece

It's all about Greece and in the meantime the Greek part of Cyprus is also feeling the pain. Moodys downgraded the Greek Cypriot republic to one notch above junk this week on the exposure of its banks to Greek sovereign debt. Over 70% of Cypriot bank tier 1 capital is exposed to the sovereign, so with a 50% write off a big chunk of capital goes up in smoke. Government will have to step in as we've seen in other peripherals. Looking at the numbers, it's highly improbable that Greece's debt to GDP ratio would fall anywhere near as low as 120% with the 50% write-off as estimated in the big Eurozone deal last week. Greece would have to grow at 2% plus and run large primary budget surpluses for many years, as well as sell of a bunch of state assets. Brazil did it, you say. And maybe Greece could do it but it looks a bit fanciful right now. Cyprus will likely see further downgrades before this is over. Its own debt to GDP is nothing like it's neighbour's but rising fast - looks like it'll clock up 70% next year. The QSL is from the Cyprus Broadcasting Corporation heard on shortwave 49mb in Kent in 2001. We've also had a couple of good holidays in Paphos.

Peru quakes as Eurozone shakes

Eurozone leaders delivered relief to markets this week, confirming the positive vibes that had driven equities for days before. Ominously, however, bonds in the peripheral Eurozone economies didn't join the party. On Thursday the ECB bought Italian bonds to drive home the message but by Friday close the Italian 10-year yield was pushing back at 6% and an issue of 10-year bonds fetched slightly more than 6%. This is not a good formula - yields well above nominal GDP growth can trigger a debt downspiral. So an earthquake averted for the time being but tension remains. A real earthquake hit Peru, a country no stranger to tremblers, registering 6.9 Richter. This time thankfully the quake appears to have done limited damage to person and property unlike in 2007 when hundreds died and 40000 homes were wrecked. Hopefully this story just fades away but it is a reminder that the western coast of South America is constantly at risk. Peruvian miners appear unaffected so, although it is one of the world's major metals producers, commodities are unlikely to be hit. Many mining analysts are focused on supply now forgetting that demand issues are far more important when the world slows down, as it is now. The QSL is my only one on AM from Peru. It's a beaut - Radio Neuvo Continente, Cajamarca with only 1.5kW - heard in Morgan Bay, South Africa in 1992. This is a self-prepared card which I sent to the station and it also sent a nice letter in Spanish with details about the station and the region.

Another minute to another midnight in Eurozone

Yet again it's one minute to midnight in the Eurozone. With Greece tottering on the edge of default, Eurozone politicians are playing another round of footsie with the markets. It's a three-pronged programme: leverage up the EFSF, recapitalise the banks and bail-in private sector holders of Greek debt even more than agreed in July. Sarkozy has run afoul of Merkel in calling for the EFSF to be given bank status to allow it to access funds from the ECB. It seems like this is just not going to happen even though it and would potentially allow the ECB to create unlimited amounts of moola to back the peripheral Eurozone states. ECB funding in this way would likely violate EU treaties and therefore require another round of parliamentary voting. Slovakia held out on the recent EFSF vote owing to recalcitrance of libertarian party leader, Richard Sulik, a self-professed Austrian School of Economics supporter. The Austrian School hasn't had much of a look-in in this crisis so far. Wrangling is set to continue through Wednesday - markets have taken a positive tack over the week, albeit volatile. There may be disappointment next week. The QSL is from Slovak Radio, heard on two AM frequencies in London in 1999.

Whales get better deal than Dalai Lama

Back in Cape Town for another few days and luckily the nor' wester came in on cue again. Got up early and headed for Muizies on a grey, warm morning. The offshore wind was p-p-perfect, into a medium swell. Caught stacks of waves. The shark-spotters had the black flag up - visibility poor. There were surprisingly few surfers so I guess the shark scare is still reverberating around the bay. Suddenly I looked up and about 300m out saw two huge eruptions of white water. A couple of southern right whales were cavorting, leaping clear of the water and arcing over  nose first, with their huge crescent tails looping in behind. I thought how silly it is that these mammals have such easy access to our shores while poor Dalai Lama can't get a visa to attend Desmond Tutu's 80th birthday bash. I mean Tutu can be a pain but he should be able to invite Lhamo Dondrub (his birth name) if he wants to. It's testimony to the clout that China now wields on the African continent. The irony is that most South Africans are completely ignorant about the way China has just rolled over Tibet, a country whose people are genetically different from the majority Han of China. Incidentally, Dalai is Mongolian for 'ocean'. Mongolia is a land-locked country - go figure! The QSL is from the old Radio Beijing using the transmitter in Lhasa, Tibet. It was heard in Johannesburg on short-wave in 1989. Lhasa transmitters still come in very well into Cape Town.

Columbus' China was Grand Turk

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Full moon, leap tide, steady offshore breeze, good swell, black flag. I found time to go out again this afternoon at Muizies. Two sharks had been spotted earlier in the day and the spotters had had a field day: white flag (with black shark) - the most dangerous; red flag with white shark (shark spotted recently) and black flag with white shark (visibility too poor to tell). The latter was up when I arrived late in the day and there were about 50 surfers. The tide was near the high water mark and the paddle out back was short. I caught stacks of waves, some holding up quite well. I have to admit that I kept my feet in the footstraps and when I fell off got back on pretty fast! Usually I keep clear of the other surfers but today I stuck with them. Not sure what the theory of this really is - safety in numbers, or just makes you feel better. The local surf shops are complaining bitterly about the loss of business since the Clovelly attack. The press is constantly schmoozing around looking for a story - 'lead with the bleed' - it's sick. Columbus Day in the US and markets are taking a breather there, while Europe rallied some more on the Merkel-Sarkozy 'deal' to capitalise banks. Ho-hum. There's a big dispute about Columbus' first landfall. He thought he was in China, silly man, but he was really just on the other side of the Atlantic. One of the islands in the frame is Grand Turk. Here's a QSL from Caribbean Christian Radio on Grand Turk heard on AM at Sheigra in Scotland in 1996.

Dexia to the shark

Dexia's CDS spreads have widened out alarmingly for some time. The sub debt has signaled major distress for quite a while and the pile-up finally got to the retail public who overloaded the bank's telephone helpline. The shares were plummeting last week and then suspended on Thursday. Now Belgium, France and Luxembourg have agreed on a rescue deal to bail it out. As with the sovereign peripherals in Europe, contagion is the issue and focus will now shift to other threatened Eurobanks like SocGen. The Eurozone story continues to play out as a fire flares up and is extinguished, only for another to flare up somewhere else. The markets continue to wait for a 'bazooka' solution but it isn't visible yet albeit that a number of ideas are zinging about. In the meantime, Cape Town is boiling but the locals will only put toes into the water in False Bay because of the shark attack at Clovelly. The shark-spotters are running the red flag up on the beaches which is supposed to indicate that a great white was spotted within the past few hours. But actually they are not spotting them right now. They are just putting up the flags because everyone is so flipped out by the attack. There are also a bunch of whales in the bay so there is no shortage of action. Some surfers went out anyway at Muizenberg with a light northwester making a good shape. I popped in for an hour this afternoon. The QSL is from Radio Trafic in Houdeng, Belgium, heard on AM in Otford, Kent in 2001.

Torrid temperatures and Tesco's testing time

It's October already. Past days have hardly been blogging weather with the mercury recording temperatures in southern England last seen in Victorian times, so the media says. Mercury up but spending down. Tesco, which takes 1 in every 10 pounds spent in British shops, reported one of its biggest-ever falls in sales, a sign of the hard times affecting consumers, even for basic non-durable goods. The authorities are going through all kinds of contortions to avert slowdown, including a freeze on council tax for next year. But the sense of entitlement remains pretty well entrenched. We had a taste of this when we heard where my son's old mates in England went to celebrate the end of A levels. In South Africa the kids went on Plett Rage - Plettenberg Bay is a seaside resort about 6 hours drive up the coast from Cape Town. The London kids went to .... Crete. Adjustment lies ahead, for some years, methinks. Gone are the days when youngsters could put everything they owned into a Beetle. The QSL is from Crush 1278 a low-powered student AM station on the University of Hertfordshire. I heard this one afternoon and dropped them a line. Tesco's HQ is also in Hertfordshire, a few miles north of London.

Whatever it takes to the Solent

Whatever It Takes, went the mantra. And it still is the mantra. The problem is that the mechanism has not permitted Whatever It Takes to be implemented. Economic spirits are ebbing away as the logjam in Europe continues. For a while European decision-making was able to look over the brink and act in time. But it is now behind the curve. Recent days have seen commodity prices start to lose altitude. Even the gold price fell as people remembered that an important underpin for gold investors is fabrication demand which takes a large chunk of newly mined gold each year, with China becoming ever-important. Stand by for huge support funds: the ECB will end up buying many billions, even trillions of sovereign debt while the EFSB will have to be boosted to Euros 2 trillion plus. Maybe there will even be a global bail-out with sovereign wealth funds, China, USA, IMF 'n all. But markets are likely to swoon more first because not enough will be forthcoming ahead of the curve. Banking system threat remains on red alert with the risk of spiral into good quality credit rising. Banks have to refinance an awful lot of debt through 2012 and they will be relying on declining collateral quality to do so. This will push up lending rates in a weakening economy. In the meantime we head to Southampton tomorrow to enroll our son into Uni for the first time. There are milestones in life.... The QSL is from BBC Radio Solent, heard in London in 1996 on AM 999. We are looking forward to sailing the Solent soon.

The Swiss hiss

Another global dollar flood! The Swiss National Bank joined with those of the UK, USA, Eurozone and Japan to provide unlimited dollar liquidity for banks in a move reminiscent of the big dollar swap lines that were made available post-Lehmans. It's mostly for Euro banks of course where liquidity concerns have ticked up inexorably in recent weeks. It's not too hard to arrive at the conclusion that many Euro banks are effectively bust on the basis of their increasingly delinquent exposure to the peripheral Eurozone sovereigns. I hate now to be one of the internet economist brigade spelling out doom for the global economy but I have to admit that the policy paralysis is a serious threat. Banks could become seriously unglued. Pumping dollars into the system is merely a stopgap and does not confront the main problem - restructuring of Eurozone debt is now inevitable. In the meantime the Swiss National Bank is aggressively opposing the flow of funds into the country seeking safe haven. The line on Swissy is drawn in the sand but it's tough game to win. The QSL is from from the International Committee of the Red Cross trial in 1968 heard on shortwave in Cape Town in 1968.

Over-blowing the storm

In London for over a week now. But I've spent the last four days travelling around Scandinavia, Germany and Holland seeing clients. The economic environment is pressing down on most fund managers. Market turbulence is very high with big daily moves in indices and stocks. The human mind is not well programmed to deal with constant bad news. Every couple of days I wake up and think: enough of this! There is the temptation to look out and see ordinary people going around doing their daily bidding and think that normality must return, the chaos is not real. But it is real of course. The danger is that politicians in Eurozone and the US may just simply be unable to do the 'whatever it takes' they have promised to do. The mechanics of the political process may not allow it. On the other hand, if the threat becomes cataclysmic, big shifts in political positions could happen quite swiftly. The US is better positioned for this, being a single country. But even the Eurozone may be able to take big steps if it realises that the situation is life-threatening. In the meantime, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has picked up sharply. Irene tore up the east coast, making landfall in North Carolina. The media made an absolute meal of this one, completely exaggerating its severity. So far this season there have been a few more storms than at this time last year but far fewer hurricanes. It's not over yet but the temptation to blow up a storm is higher than ever: Tropical Storm Maria is next. The QSL is from WPTF in Raleigh, NC heard during a business trip to Florida in 1989.

Sayonara Cape Town

Well the blog signs off in South Africa and will re-open in London, where we are moving as from tonight. As I look out over Simonstown on a windy, greyish day I know I'm gonna miss this place so much. A north-wester is blowing and I saw some surfers out at Muizies in a small swell as I rode past on the train. Cape Town Metrorail works, but barely. The rolling stock is in a parlous state with ripped seats, graffiti everywhere and the wheels screech round corners. The last leg alongside the sea from Fish Hoek to Simonstown always takes ages because of the corners. But it was still fun tracking markets on my laptop using 3G in the mornings from this sleepy hollow. SA's weather forecasting system is pretty good and it needs to be in a place where wind knowledge is so important for sailing, surfing and various other outdoor pursuits. The QSL is from ZOE33 Gough Island in the South Atlantic. This is one of SA's weather stations and I heard them on the utility bands with 1kW back in 1986.

What will make the main pain in Spain go away again?

Spain is in the cross hairs of the bond bears. With sovereign debt equal to three delinquent peripheral Eurozone countries - Greece, Ireland and Portugal - put together, it is potentially very scary if Spain's yields move to levels where refinancing costs push it into a negative debt spiral. The 10-year bond yield topped 6% recently but the latest Eurozone package plus European Central Bank buying pushed that back to 5%. Even that seems high in a world where yields are much lower in some places, like USA and Germany. It is a bit ironic that 5% seems high given that it would have been quite normal a few years ago. But the simple arithmetic is that when you have debt problems you need to keep your bond yield at or below your nominal GDP growth rate i.e. real growth plus inflation. Spain is some way off that as it's real growth has slowed to a crawl. But the Spanish are not sitting on their hands and are in the process of passing a balanced budget constitutional amendment which has the support of both the ruling party and the opposition. The QSL is from the COPE radio chain broadcasting from Valencia (home of the 2009 America's Cup) heard in Johannesburg in 1991 on AM, one of quite a few Spanish medium-wave QSLs I've picked up over the years.

There'll always only be one Thiruvanathapuram for me

You get everything at Muizies. In the northwester: short and long surfboards, paddle boards, waveski's (like mine), kayaks. In the southeaster the kitesurfers take over. Last weekend there was a flurry of them. Approaching from a distance it looked as if they were actually in the parking lot rather than the breakers. Of course, there are all kinds of bathers especially when it's warm. This winter has seen more hot days than I ever can remember in Cape Town. People say to us - you're moving to London at the wrong time, two winters in a row, bad planning. But actually it's been warmer here this winter than most of the summer in England. With all the financial turmoil over recent weeks I've asked the question: can the emerging economies, now the paragons of the global economy, be the locomotive for a recovery if the developed world swoons? Short answer is: no. Yes EMs are more important than in any time over the past 20 years but they are still not the big gorilla. All eyes are on China but one day soon India will also be a big player. India has boomed in recent years. So much so that the central bank has hiked rates many times in recent months, as inflation remains stubbornly high. But it is likely to take its foot off the brake soon. The QSL is a classic from All India Radio signed by Mr Bhatnagar, from the delightfully named Thiruvananthapuram transmitter in the 60mb heard in London in 2000.

Oil shave for Chavez

Turbulence in markets has hit the oil price too. Not so long ago the Brent near futures contract was close to $130pb, now it has subsided to $108pb. West Texas, which is suffering from a congestion problem in Oklahoma is way lower still. For Venezuela the lower price is a problem. Government relies on oil for a large chunk of its budget and the Bolivarian Revolution is already unaffordable with a budget deficit of over 5% of GDP and foreign debt heading for the $100bn mark. Inflation is entrenched at well above 20%. Of course, in the long term Vennie will just muddle along as it has for years. Oil has always been the saviour and that is unlikely to change even though the national oil company PDVSA is so badly run. The country sits on gigantic deposits of heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt. Venezuela says its reserves now exceed Saudi Arabia's. This is an exaggeration but there's surely plenty of stuff in the ground. A lot of foreign expertise and capital will be needed to develop these but Hugo Chavez is unlikely to open the doors. Now, however, he is ill and may not last in power as long as he hoped (i.e. for another decade or so!). See my article on Venezuela here:
http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=150148 The QSL is from Radio Anzoategui, heard on AM 1210 in 1991 during a dxpedition to remote Copperton in the Northern Cape province with Vashek Korinek. Anzoategui is one of the states that borders on the Orinoco Belt.

USA from Standard to Poor?

Standard and Poor's downgraded the US credit rating from AAA. Well the US had it coming and S&P had threatened for a while. Even if we don't exactly love the rating agencies for their collusion in the last credit bubble, the appalling confrontation between the GOP and the Democrats only served to remind us all that the US must confront its fiscal demons. The downgrade came at the end of a terrible week for equities. If you had said at the start of the year the following was going to happen: major uprisings in the Middle East with 1.5m bpd of oil off the market, a major earthquake and nuclear disaster in Japan, multiple edge-of-the-cliff confrontations on debt in the Eurozone and the US political system going to the wire on the credit ceiling; well then you would have run for the hills as an equity investor. Although much of the US data looks daunting, many numbers point to no double-dip, in my opinion. You just don't get double-dips from here - low capacity utilisation, low unit labour costs, strong corporate cash flow, very low interest rates, huge pent-up demand. Hope I'm right! Friday's payrolls numbers were way better than expected with upward revisions in the prior two months. Just a reminder that forecasting that series each month is senseless. Not to worry, my profession makes a living out of it! S&P headquarters are located in the New York Financial District, on Water St, an area I just love walking in. The QSL is from WNEW New York, heard on AM 1130 Khz in Cape Town in 1972.

What Speranza for Italia?

The nor' wester started blowing yesterday morning but I could only get to Muizies at 3pm today when the wind was already quite strong, gusting at over 20 knots. This was classic Muizies - medium swell and a fresh offshore breeze. As waves approached the critical, a thin white band would appear at the crest as strips of foam ripped off the top. You had to look for waves with centre peaks and ride off to left or right away from the break. Some of the bigger ones just closed out right across the full face of the wave. But with some the sections would break consecutively giving the chance to cut back and out again without getting swamped by white water. On one ride I stayed in the swell to the last second then tried to pull out but the breaker got me and I rode backwards for a few seconds before swinging around again in the churn. Pretty pleased to stay on through that lot. In the meantime the wild ride in Italian debt returned to the Eurozone frame and equities took another big hit. The potential for calamity mounts. The scale of the Euro peripheral problem is daunting and my long experience in financial markets does not equip me to understand how we get through this. The QSL is from Radio Speranza in Modena heard in Otford, Kent in 2001 on my trusty Drake and a K9AY antenna set up at right angles.

The ABC Radio of a perfect wave

In each surf session there is always one wave you remember best. Early yesterday morning a light nor' wester wafted over Muizenberg and I went out early. The water was c-c-cold and during gaps between waves I squeezed my fingers in the armpits of my wetsuit to keep the circulation going. The sets were small but well-shaped. On this one wave, as I took off right, a burst of fragmented sunrays exploded through an opening in the clouds. The newly-risen sun was at eye-level, vividly picking out the shape of the smooth swell in front of me as I zig-zagged ahead of the white water curling along behind. It was a wave that kept on giving and I rode it three-quarters of the way to the shore before it finally closed out. Still earlier I'd received an email from ABC Radio, Northern Territory in Australia about a reception report I'd sent. Their stations are currently booming in here at night on short-wave 60mb and I'm hearing about things like Darwin's Ladies Day and Australia's new carbon tax, as well as old pop songs by the likes of Donovan. The QSL is from ABC Alice Springs heard on AM in Morgan Bay in 1993, using just 2kW.

The As and Bs of Athens to Buenos Aires

Greece may look at Argentina and wonder if it shouldn't just default. After all, Argentina reneged on $81bn of sovereign debt in 2002. For a while the economy tanked but then followed many years of 8% growth. Even in the credit crunch it scraped through with around 1% and the following year it rebounded 9%, more than just about any other economy. Is the Argentina model a desirable one for Greece to follow? Don't forget that the Argentine default was accompanied by a 75% devaluation of the peso. This left the country hugely competitive relative to its neighbours and other big exporters. Also the Argentine collapse was a slow-motion affair. Investors could see it coming for a long time so by the time it happened the event caused very little contagion. Greece also has a pegged currency and has also been imploding for some time but a huge devaluation like Argentina's would cause both significant damage to Greece but also collateral damage to a number of other Eurozone economies. Its debt is a multiple of Argentina's. The key is once again, the banking sector. Banks are leveraged and the multiples involved in the Eurozone periphery coutries are breath-taking, relative to their capital. Greece has to be let down over many years. See my article: http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=149092 The QSL is from Radio Buenos Aires, heard in Joburg on 1350 AM in 1987.

Emperor Nero ensconced in Washington

The pols are certainly having a ball in Washington, taking each other to the edge on the US debt ceiling. Every day we hear that a new deal may be in the offing only to find later that they are as far apart as ever. This is a collective Nero fiddling while Rome burns. A debt default, or even fear of it, would for starters wreak havoc in the repo market, widely used by the banks for funding. Then we have the Chinese and Japanese getting jittery about their holdings of Treasuries and thinking of new ways of not buying them in future. No doubt, this IS a very important debate. At some point soon America must confront the fact that its deficit is way too high. Both entitlement spending cuts and tax increases are unavoidable. My leaning is towards the former and the Democrats, Obama in particular, know this too. But taking it to the edge like this reinforces thoughts about American incompetence. When you're in America it seems like such an organised society but the debt overhang and policy paralysis make it seem that the country has really lost the plot. The QSL is from WTOP in Washington DC heard in Cape Town way back in 1968. The revenue stamps show that I had to pay a few cents because Granville didn't cough up enough for the postcard!

Cape to Cameroon

An extraordinary week in Cape Town. It's mid-winter but the temps have exceeded 20 degrees every day. Last Sunday it was 27 and there was a crush on the beaches as people poured out of their homes. This morning there was a light nor' wester and a decent swell at Muizies. I got out there at about 0830 and caught many waves over about two hours. Water temp was about 16, fine with a wetsuit and the sun shining full on. Also during the week the Cameroon government placed a full-page ad in the London Financial Times encouraging investment in its economy. There appear to be many projects on the go with China seemingly very much involved. Hu Jintao visited Cameroon a couple of years back. There's a big highway project linking the cities, power and mining etc. A picture of none other than Paul Biya, president since 1982, featured in the ad. No sign of him leaving anytime soon! The QSL is from Radio Yaounde, heard in London in 1996. I'd tried for many years to QSL this and other Cameroon stations. To get this one I went round to the Cameroon embassy in Holland Park, near where we lived. I played some of the staff a recording I'd made of R Yaounde and begged them to contact the station on my behalf. They obliged and a couple of months later I got this official QSL card. Persistence!

It's Italy I tell you

Gosh! This is getting serious. Until now I've had the view that the Eurozone peripheral debt crisis would be contained. After all, Greek, Portuguese and Irish sovereign debt is only 7% of total Eurozone GDP. It's containable. A Euro fiscal union could easily cope with it. Structures to reduce debt and interest payments are quite feasible and have been set up in other situations. During the 1980s Latin American bank loan crisis, Citigroup and other banks were effectively bust but at the end of the decade the Brady bond mechanism changed the landscape for debtors and creditors. So far, Eurozone politicians have done the right thing each time they've looked over the abyss. Even this week, Italy passed an austerity budget with support across the political spectrum. Problem is that Italy's debt is more than Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain altogether. It can't be 'bailed out.' A negative, self-feeding loop is possible if Italian bond yields start spiralling up. It's scary. Politicians can be overwhelmed by events. See - Russian debt crisis, WW1, etc. The QSL is from Radio Maria, a religious broadcaster in Italy with just 1 kW, heard in London on 41mb in 1997.

Yingluck lucks in

Thailand's election threw up a surprise. Yingluck Shinawatra, smart business woman and sister to Thaksin, came storming home. Thailand has experienced loads of political turmoil in recent years including a military coup in 2006. In fact it has a history of serial government change until recently - mainly military. There's also a monarchy which is strongly protected against criticism. Thaksin was hugely popular in his time especially outside of the urban elite and his sister has capitalised on his reputation. This raises the possibility that he may return from exile and escape fraud charges - in particular the huge tax-free profit his family made from the sale of Shin Corp. His return would not please a large section of the Thai community and could cause the ongoing friction between Yellows and Reds to continue. But Yingluck's win was comprehensive and it may this time lead to greater stability. The stock market liked the news jumping sharply on the day. See my article on Thailand here: http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=148042 The QSL is from Radio Thailand heard on 31mb in London in 1996. I'd heard them many times before, going back to the 1960s but really struggled to get a reply. Thai AM stations are audible here in Cape Town from time to time.

Athens - kicking the can can be fun

Another long blog break and hey presto it's July! We've moved house, sent half our chattels to London, half to Simonstown. We found homes for our dog and cat. We're selling two cars, made umpteen trips to the dump. Change is good they say and it's true but it's also daunting and sad. I had a long run through the suburbs of Rondebosch to say goodbye to all the places I know so well there. Matt, our son, has skipped the nest and is schmoozing around Europe with a couple of mates. They started in Athens and saw some of the demos as parliament debated yet another austerity programme. Once again Greece stepped back from the brink. People say this is just kicking the can down the road. I say yes it's true and what's wrong with that? When I was a kid I used to kick cans down the road and it was fun. Sometimes I'd score a goal. They have no choice. It's the politics stupid. It takes time for politicians to make the compromises necessary to restructure Greek debt in an orderly way, but it can be done. In the meantime keep on kicking. The QSL dates back to 1968 from the Telcoms utility OTE. This is one of the state assets Greece must sell in order to help reduce its sovereign debt.

Humming on Hobie's in Lotos-Eater Land

The two week holiday in Mauritius was fabulous. It is resonant of the Land of the Lotos-Eaters (Tennyson) in which it seemed always to be afternoon because of the languid and peaceful atmosphere. Club Med has a great formula there. Every day it's great food and cocktails, which in normal circumstances would quickly register an extra 5kgs on your bathroom scale. But you burn it off. Each day I exerted myself in a melange of Hobie Cat sailing, water-skiing, petanque, ping pong, water polo for the guests vs the staff and tennis in the evening with the floodlights coming on in the fading light. And it's French! Yes there is a smattering of South Africans and other nationalities but most of the guests are from France with a few from Reunion as well. My French is appalling now, through lack of practice, but within a few days it started to come back and French people are so friendly when you try to speak their langauge, no matter how broken. Club Med has just come out with a big improvement in earnings and it seems they are re-branding higher up the income curve. All I can say is when that Hobie starts to hum through the water and you've one hull way up out of the water, there is no place you'd rather be. The QSL is from Mauritius Broadcasting Corp heard on 684 kHz AM in Johannesburg in 1993.

Chile in sunny Mauritius

Blog has slept for many weeks! In the meantime I holidayed on the intoxicating island of Mauritius. The sun shines, it's warm 24 hours a day, the water is perfect. When it rains it is just enough to keep everything green. We were at a Club Med and I sailed Hobie Cats, water-skid, played tennis, water polo and petananque all day. I needed to get back home to rest! We loved meeting friendly French people there. During our trip, Chile exhumed the body of Salvador Allende in an attempt to finally lay to rest the question about how he died in the military coup that brought Pinochet to power. In the 38 years since then, Chile has become the leading economy in Latin America and is surging again on the back of the buoyant copper price. But it is not just copper that drives Chile. It has significantly broadened its economic base since Allende's disastrous economic path. Pinochet was no saint, of course, with many brutally killed and tortured. The economy failed again in the early 1980s but the country continued to reform and is now a model for many emerging economies. See my article on Chile here http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=144199. The QSL is from Radio Presidente Balmaceda, heard on 31mb in Cape Town in the 1960s.

Good luck coming to West African state near you

Nigeria's elections were a vote for political stability. Despite the initial hitch when the election process had to be delayed for a week, the outcome was hugely positive for perceptions of Nigerian democracy. Although there was some carping about election irregularities, the crushing win of incumbent Goodluck Jonathan, who has a PhD in Zoology, gave a clear mandate to the new government and broke the tradition where the presidency passes from the north to the south and back from cycle to cycle. Already in West Africa, Ghana has held successful elections where power has passed from one party to another without incident. We have also seen recently in Ivory Coast that West Africans will not tolerate an illegitimate leader holding on to power. Gbagbo's departure was humiliating: where he could so easily have stepped down with dignity he chose to cling on to the last and was dragged away in shame. Sub-Saharan Africa in general appears to be coming of age. This is particularly evident in its economic growth path which has been strong over the past decade and has regained momentum after the global credit crunch. The QSL is from FRCN Enugu heard in Cape Town in 1993 on short-wave. Nigerian state QSLs are precious.

Correa corrals the vote

Ecuador goes into a referendum this weekend. Voters are being asked to vote on a list of no less than 10 questions ranging widely from restraints on media ownership and reforming the judiciary to limits on bullfighting and cockfighting and bans on casinos and gambling. Gimme a break! The exercise is more just a popularity test for President Rafael Correa because most people don't really understand what the referendum is all about. Correa has made a successful recovery following last year's police uprising and continues with a programme of spending on schools, hospitals and roads. The strong oil price has provided cash flow for this poor and divided country which defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2008. Only nine years earlier it became the first country to default on Brady bonds (the debt structure created after the Latin American debt crises in the 1980s). The QSL is from Teleradio in Guayaquil, heard on 1350 AM one morning in central London using a Wellbrook 1530 antenna in the garden. It came through crystal clear for a few minutes, enough to get an ID and some programme details. I heard Ondas de la Montana in Medellin, Colombia on the same morning but try as I might never received a QSL.

Branding the Royals

As the confetti settles after the Royal Wedding, the paparazzi wonder where the happy couple will be heading to enjoy their honeymoon. It seems that William will actually first be returning to base to resume his helicopter pilot duties before taking his bride off to some secret resort. We are told that William 'loves Africa' and has enjoyed his trips 'to Africa' over the years. We Africans always wonder what this actually means. After all this is like saying, William 'loves the World'; or 'loves Asia' etc. There are stacks of countries in Africa and they are by no means the same. The continent stretches as far north of the equator as south and has multiple nationalities, tribes, languages, geographies, stages of economic development, political systems, cultures and.... I could go on. Anyway, the Wedding was a brilliant coup for the British royal brand. Up to 2 billion people watched world wide. You don't get better marketing than this and the payback for the UK economy will way exceed the cost. However, one thing that struck me was how poor William's responses were when taking his vows. He has this rather clipped accent. This was evident especially when he was required to say 'I will.' You could barely hear him - his volume was low and he elided the two words. This was a big moment - it's the time you say 'I WILL' clearly and with the best King's English diction. The QSL is from LBC, London, heard on 1152 kHz AM from Johannesburg in 2006.

Makassar, Sulawesi to Macassar, Cape

It's autumn and the sea-swells are building as the north-westers start to come in. Yesterday had the biggest waves at Muizenberg I've seen this year. The wind brought the rain too and the sea was a glassy silver-grey. I got right out to the back and waited for the big sets. Being early it wasn't too crowded. When I arrived at the beach I signalled my wife in our house in Simonstown across the bay (6 miles). She checked though our new telescope to see if I was visible and there I was! So cool. The previous evening I heard Radio Republik Indonesia, Makassar, on the island of Sulawesi on 4750 kHz. The signal was coming in beautifully just before my local sunset, playing gentle pop songs. The station signed off at 1600z, or midnight in Makassar. Meanwhile from our house I could see the beach of Macassar across False Bay, not far from where I surf. It is so named because of the nearby Kramat or holy grave of Sheik Yusuf, an exiled nobleman of Makassar in the former Dutch East Indies who died at the Cape in 1699. The QSL is from another station on Sulawesi, RRI Manado, heard on a DXpedition to Morgan Bay, South Africa in 1990. You'll need to get your Bahasa Indonesia dictionary out to understand it. This is one of a number of RRI stations I've been so pleased to QSL over the years. Also, here is a link to an article I wrote recently about Indonesia's economy: http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=136432

Poland still smouldering about Smolensk

Last week Poland marked the anniversary of the Smolensk air disaster when 96 people including President Lech Kaczynski perished. The disaster produced a brief period of political unity in Poland but this has disintegrated into acrimony, with Kaczynski's brother accusing the opposition-led government of Donald Tusk of capitulation to the Russians concerning the cause of the crash. The Russians say the the Polish aircrew must take all the blame, accepting no responsibility on its side for air traffic control problems at the airport. Poland's model economy has also had a bit of a shock when it was revealed the imports of mainly second-hand cars from Germany have been hugely under-recorded meaning that its current account deficit is far larger than reported. The QSL is from Warsaw 1 on long-wave, heard in London in 2004. ;- ptgt@ ' '

Governor Moonbeam can't do The Terminator

Like a number of American states California has a big budget deficit, a record $26bn at last count. Riding to the rescue from over the hill or so voters thought came Governor Moonbeam, Jerry Brown, who last governed the Sunshine State 28 years ago. It turns out it could be a mission too far and he may in fact be over the hill but not able to ride to the rescue. In the meantime, predecessor Arnold Schwarzenegger is on a jolly European tour. Jerry Brown was a product of the 1970s. He dated rocker Linda Rondstadt and once suggested that California launch its own satellite. It was a time when Mike Royko called the state the world's largest outdoor mental asylum. The credit crunch has dealt harshly with California and Brown's attempts to move the state forward on a new budget plan have failed in the face of Republican opposition, unlike New York and Illinois. Brown seems more intent on saving the state's bloated bureaucracy than its education system. Worst case if no agreement is forthcoming will be a reversion to the 2009 situation where California humiliatingly had to issue IOUs in the place of cash in order to pay its bills. The picture is from a QSL from KNX Newsradio Los Angeles, CA on 1070 kHz, heard in 1987.

Morales no longer mas populares

Bolivia's Evo Morales was re-elected in 2009 with a majority of over 60%. His policy of directing increased oil and gas industry taxes to the poor has gained him great popularity. But populism can only work for a while and some of the screws are now coming loose. A few months back he removed subsidies on local fuel products causing prices to rise by over 70%. This didn't go down very well and he backed off. But price rises in food and bus fares have also caused discontent. The country is now running into a budget deficit and inflation is picking up. Price controls and curbs on farm imports have backfired and state control of the energy industry has deterred investment by local and foreign companies. Morales is a man of the people and to this day remains general secretary of a union of coca farmers. His stance on coca farming has brought him into conflict with the US which has tried to eliminate the crop in Bolivia. He has a point - you can't blame Bolivian farmers for the US's drug problems. But as president, Morales, having emerged as a populist, is also at the mercy of the people and has a tricky path to walk, with his popularity ratings in the cities down to just 32%. The QSL is my first from Bolivia - Radio Nueva America in La Paz. At the time (1987) my mother was visiting La Paz on holiday and I asked her to deliver my reception report by hand. It worked!

Blog takes a break, earth gets broken

You go away for a few weeks and look what happens. Libya explodes and Japan is devastated. All I did was travel around a few quiet places in Europe, seeing clients while in the meantime hell breaks loose. Try coming up with an investment strategy when the oil price goes ballistic and a tidal wave sets off a potential nuclear meltdown. It was good to get back to sunny Cape Town: late summer, with a return of the north-westerly wind. I went out early yesterday morning into perfect conditions. The full 'perigee' moon had tracked across the southern sky closer and bigger than for 18 years and not to be so close again for another 18. The tide was huge. Out back a number of paddle boarders had grouped in my favourite spot. On one wave one of these guys was up before me and tracked left instead of right (which was the way the wave was set to break). I stayed up and let him roll under my nose, checking slightly. Then with a quick pull on the paddle I picked up momentum again and turned out to the right, keeping the swell alive. I was so chuffed! The picture is of Ono-no Komachi, a famous Japanese poet of the 9th century. She is a symbol of feminine beauty in Japan. It came with a QSL from JOUB Akita heard on 774 kHz when I was on a trip to Seoul. Akita is situated on the north-west side of Honshu Island, 200km from Sendai. It experienced aftershocks of more than 6 on the Richter scale.

Gaddafi no gadfly and other African sit-tights

President Muammar Al-Gaddafi of Libya led a coup by young army officers in 1969. He deposed King Idris I, abolished the monarchy and established the Libyan Arab Republic. He was only 27 at the time. That's one of the reasons he's been able to build up such a long track record of dictatorship, coming up for 42 years. He's right up near the top of the list of longest ruling non-royal leaders. If he hangs on for a few more days he will overtake Omar Bongo of Gabon for fourth place on the list. Ahead of him are Fidel Castro of Cuba and and Kim Il-Sung of North Korea. The way things are going, he's not going to overtake those two as both have several years on him still. There are quite a few sit-tights left in Africa. Down here in the southern cone of Africa we have Robert Mugabe, holding on after 30 years of disastrous rule. Also next door is King Mswati III of Swaziland who became Crown Prince of Swaziland in September 1983 and was crowned as King on April 25, 1986 when 18 years old. He remains Africa’s last absolute monarch with the power to choose a prime minister and other governmental and traditional positions. The QSL is from Radio Jamahiriya in Libya, heard in London in 1999. This was one of those QSLs where many reports were ignored, then out of the blue this smart card arrived.

Oil on top of corn in Mexico

Taco? Enchilada? Just the thing for that al fresco summer lunch by the pool. Easy to prepare: just wrap some tasty goodies up in a tortilla, add chilli and you’re done. Mexicans have done this for hundreds of years and exported the delicious cuisine to the world. This year it may not be so easy. The corn price, in Mexican pesos, has doubled over the past six months and is back to the peaks of the boom before Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Although population growth has slowed sharply, at over 110m (second only to Brazil in Latin America) there are still lots of Mexican mouths to feed. White corn is the base for tortillas and corn imports have doubled over the past decade to around 8mt per annum, leaving Mexico vulnerable to the vagaries of the world price. Mexico is also a big producer of oil but supply has declined from 3.4mbpd to 2.8mbpd over the past six years. It is also consuming increasing amounts of its own oil, now at 70% of output, and at the current rate will cease to be an exporter in this decade. Mexico has hamstrung itself by prohibiting foreign participation in oil exploration with the state-owned oil company, Pemex. Legislation has recently changed here but it will be many years before new production comes on stream from what is hoped are significant potential finds offshore. The BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is also likely to raise the cost of development. (See link to this on http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=133567). The QSL is from XERMX Radio Mexico International heard on shortwave (9705kHz in the 31 mb) in London in 1999. I also have a few Mexican AM station QSLs which I'll post in due course.

Yesmen no more in Aden

The turmoil in Tunisia and Egypt has generated echoes in Yemen. Protests in Sana'a and Aden have called for the end of the rule of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, in power since 1978. He has offered to move on in 2013 (no hurry, then!). But the issue in Aden is more complicated than: 'Tunisia, Egypt and now Yemen.' Aden is an ancient port and has been ruled over time by the Portuguese, the Ottomans and the British. There was contact between Aden and the Chinese Ming dynasty as early as 1421, long before western European ships rounded the Cape of Good Hope. Under the British it was for a while part of India! The British pulled out in 1967 and Aden became the capital of the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. Then in 1990 north and south Yemen were unified with Sana'a the capital. Some of the dissatisfaction in Aden is linked to its historical independence and a desire for secession. The QSL is from the Peoples Democratic Republic in Aden heard in Johannesburg in 1986 on AM. It's one of my best.