Saturday 19 November 2011

Can Rajoy bring joy?


Spain to the polls and it's likely to be a landslide victory for the right-wing Spanish People's Party headed by Mariano Rajoy. It's a bit of a poisoned chalice. Spanish bond yields have ticked up steadily in recent months in spite of the latest Eurozone deal which was supposed to draw a firewall around Spanish and Italian debt. Spain's sovereign debt to GDP ratio is not that high - at below 70% it is lower than both France and Germany and way below Italy. But it has significant private sector debt, both households and corporates. A drive along the coastal south-east is a reminder of the crazy property boom that was pyramided on top of cheap Euro finance. Governments have fallen in all the GIPSI countries now and the new guys have simply been saddled with the problems of the old guys. All of them are pushing through tough austerity packages aimed at controlling government deficits. But this is also stifling domestic demand and pushing their economies into a spiral of low or negative growth, growing debt and rising bond yields. They also need to push reform to free up economic activity, reduce government ownership and stimulate entrepreneurship. These things are only happening at a glacial pace. Mariano Rajoy was brought up and educated in Galicia, in north-west Spain. The QSL is from Radio Nacional de Espana, La Coruna, on the Galician coast. It's one of a bunch of Spanish AM QSLs I've collected, often listening in when they switch to local programming for short spells in the evening.

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