Catching the Yule tide

It's Yuletide time again. Here we are at the winter solstice in the northern hemisphere (and summer down here in Cape Town). Yule goes back to pagan times and was a recognition that the days were about to start getting longer. The Yule log these days is a cake but in ancient times would typically be an oak branch to set on the fire which would hopefully burn for a long time and give out good heat. This winter in the north is particularly cold. The amount of snow in London this month is much greater than in any year during the 12 we lived there. It's the second cold winter in a row. Is there any connection with global warming? You have to wonder whether a couple more cold winters won't have people revising their opinions on this thorny subject. Maybe its just a statistical blip in a long cycle. Meanwhile, it's hot in Cape Town but it's been a pretty mild summer so far. The QSL is one of many I collected from UK AM stations in the 1990s. This one was heard just before Christmas 1997 - BBC Radio Derby.

Whales in Betty's Bay and BA

Betty's Bay is about 100km from Cape Town, accessed by a beautiful coastal road that runs vertically above the sea, via Gordon's Bay. In its day it was a whaling station and some of the old installations are still there. Now it is a holiday destination, consisting of a number of vacation homes and a fair-sized village. It is renowned for its strong winds and this weekend was no exception, with the south-easter gusting up to 40 knots. Running along the beach in this is a two-phased experience. It's best to go out into the wind, even if you do find that at times you are barely moving forward, with calves and ankles blasted by a miasma of white sand. Then, turn your back to the wind and take long strides. You float. The whole coastline is famous for its sightings of the southern right whale. They arrive in August to breed and usually hang around until November before heading south towards the Antarctic again. The species is thought to number 12000 and are increasing. We have definitely noticed rising numbers in the past four years. They also frequent the coastlines of Australia, New Zealand and Argentina. The QSL is from Radio El Mundo, Buenos Aires, heard on 6120 kHz here in Cape Town in 1968.

Dallas Fed to the rescue (who?)

What a week! It started off with equity markets in a swoon. The Irish debt package was announced and it went down like a lead balloon. Panic set in. If Euro 85bn wasn't enough, how much was enough? Who's next: Portugal, then Spain, even Belgium? Is there enough money in the world to bail them all out? On the flipside was this steady undertone of good economic data. Early in the week the Dallas Fed survey came out. It looked good. The employment component looked excellent. Who cares about the Dallas Fed survey? Sure, Texas is big, but it's not everything. But Dallas was backed up by Philly Fed and Chicago PMI, along with the national ISM. In all cases the employment components are looking very solid. So it was Euro contagion vs accelerating growth. Then Europe decided to remind us that 'whatever it takes', in place since the credit crunch crunced, is still the mantra. If it comes to that one day the European Central Bank will just put up a couple of trillion and fund the Eurozone bail-out vehicle (EFSF). Europe is not gonna let that grand project go down the drain, no matter what the sceptics say. It's deeply rooted, born out the desire to put generations of devastating wars into the past. The markets rebounded with zeal and ended the week on a strong note. The QSL is from KCBI, Dallas, a Christian short-wave station, heard in Joburg in the 1980s.

Celtic tiger burned too brightly

Ireland has agreed to a bail-out by the EU/IMF. The Irish initially resisted the support partly because it rings historical alarm bells about its sovereignty after years of subjugation by the British. But no amount of emotional policital baggage can hide the fact that Ireland lost the plot. At first the Irish economic miracle was a marvel to behold. Eventually, though, things just went too far. House prices doubled and doubled again and greed took over from common sense. The state simply spent too much. This is surprising given the loads of common sense that the Irish appear to have. It is by no means certain that this deal will do the trick. Irish banks are bust and the state is carrying the can. At some point holders of Irish bank debt will have to face reality. A swap of discounted Irish debt for equity is needed. A voluntary exchange would be far preferable to an involuntary default. Of course, finessing this is very tricky. In the meantime, the massive bail-0ut deal will bide the country time. The QSL is from RTE Radio 1. This long-wave transmitter is easily audible in London. I often used to listen to it driving around town. It offers high quality programming. The letter is signed by the legendary Bernie Pope. She has signed many a QSL for our DXing community over the years.

Helicopter Ben storms Frankfurt

Fed. Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke stood up in Frankfurt yesterday and gave it right back to his critics. He was under fire from various sources for the latest round of Fed money creation, known as QE2, not to be confused with the cruise liner! At the heart of the Fed's strategy is the intention to boost asset prices. As long ago as March last year, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan clearly stated that rising equity prices were key to a global recovery. Critics of the Fed are missing the point - QE2 is not about weakening the dollar. It's about restoring assets to value levels, after the shock overreaction down during the crash. Although it's not on anyone's radar screen right now, house prices are also likely to turn the corner. Currently the US is building far to few homes for the growth in the adult population. Sometime next year perception of this is likely to dawn which will add a further boost to asset prices in the US and abroad. The QSL is from the Hessischer Rundfunk in Frankfurt, home of the European Central Bank. I heard it on 594 kHz AM when living in Johannesburg in 1990.

Seoul in the dead of night

A million words, a thousand sherpas, hundreds of business executives, scores of ministers. One communiqué. Any news? Last week’s G20 summit in Seoul, Korea marked another grand gathering of economic policy-makers, charged this time with spiking the ‘currency wars’, alleged to have broken out in recent months.One could be forgiven for not being too overwhelmed with worry. If the IMF’s October economic growth update is any guide, we ought not to fret. It puts global growth at 4.8% this year and 4.2% next. Putting that in context, the average since 1970 is 3.7%. Usually it is when growth pushes up to 5% that we need to get worried. At that speed things start to break– we run out of capacity, or labour - prices take off. The IMF also has world trade volume up 11.4% and 7% in 2010 and 2011, against the 40-year average of 6.9%. Of course, we should always be sceptical about the IMF’s forecasts. But if these estimates are in the ballpark, they would be of the ‘not too hot, not too cold’ variety i.e. just right. As for currency wars, it is hard to know who is fighting whom. The US is pushing more liquidity into its banking system while China is keeping currency appreciation to a minimum. To do that China must absorb forex inflows into its economy, tantamount to boosting domestic liquidity. The QSL is from JOIF Fukuoka in Japan on 1413 kHz heard from Seoul in 1999. After the Asian debt crisis I had several trips to South Korea. I would often be jet-lagged flying in from London and would sit in the dead of the night in the Westin Chosun Hotel in Seould listening to Japanese AM stations. This was one of them.

Fed fired up in frenzy

Just as the US Fed embarks on QE2 - another bout of liquidity infusion into the banking sector - US jobs data pick up steam. Jobs are the hottest political/ economic potato in the US and the Fed has a dual mandate - keep inflation under control and keep the economy moving. Because jobs are so sensitive, any delay in recovery in the labour market puts a gun to the Fed's head. And yet, a look at 60 years of data will show you that what's happening in the labour market right now is typical of any post-recession. Jobs are usually slow to recover, and this shock was the worst in (most people's) living memory. It always takes time and the time taken this time is not different from other times. But the Fed feels obliged to act. It has also staked its reputation on avoiding Japan's experience of a 'lost decade' (or two). Japan has made several infusions of liquidity over the years, to little avail. But it started too late and in any case the dynamics of the Japanese economy are different from the USA's. So the Fed will probably do too much for too long. Whatever you say about Japan, the radio stations have a great QSL record. They just about always reply, to me at any rate. This QSL is from JOLF in Tokyo on 1242 kHz AM, heard in 1999. It still come in here in Cape Town from time to time.