Monday 8 November 2010

Fed fired up in frenzy

Just as the US Fed embarks on QE2 - another bout of liquidity infusion into the banking sector - US jobs data pick up steam. Jobs are the hottest political/ economic potato in the US and the Fed has a dual mandate - keep inflation under control and keep the economy moving. Because jobs are so sensitive, any delay in recovery in the labour market puts a gun to the Fed's head. And yet, a look at 60 years of data will show you that what's happening in the labour market right now is typical of any post-recession. Jobs are usually slow to recover, and this shock was the worst in (most people's) living memory. It always takes time and the time taken this time is not different from other times. But the Fed feels obliged to act. It has also staked its reputation on avoiding Japan's experience of a 'lost decade' (or two). Japan has made several infusions of liquidity over the years, to little avail. But it started too late and in any case the dynamics of the Japanese economy are different from the USA's. So the Fed will probably do too much for too long. Whatever you say about Japan, the radio stations have a great QSL record. They just about always reply, to me at any rate. This QSL is from JOLF in Tokyo on 1242 kHz AM, heard in 1999. It still come in here in Cape Town from time to time.

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