Who goes after Hugo goes?

Venezuela's presidential election campaign starts today. Incumbent Hugo Chavez is again front runner looking for re-election to a third term. In 2003 he won a vote to abolish term limits thus setting himself up to become an African-style 'sit-tight' president, in office for the foreseeable future. But it looks unlikely to work out that way. One way or another Venezuela is probably going to be looking for a new president before the next cycle is done, for Chavez is seriously ill. There is no Plan B within his party for succession so if he wins it's anybody's guess as to what will happen when he goes. Opposition candidate Henrique Capriles appears to be closing in the polls but Venezuela has a history of very spotty polling. In the 2004 'recall' referendum Chavez was said to be losing by 20 points but ended up winning by about that margin. It's hard to imagine him losing, with the economy having had a good run off the back of last year's strong oil price. That's set to change with the sharp fall in oil in recent months. Global oil excess demand has contracted at one of the fastest rates for ages. Venezuela's economy will head into reverse following the inevitable overspend triggered by the last surge in oil. It's been that way for decades. Already the currency is trading in the black market at less than half the official rate. The QSL is from Radio Capital in Caracas - a smart card in English and Spanish, full details, signature, logo, the lot - heard in Johannesburg early in the morning in 1986.