Seoul in the dead of night

A million words, a thousand sherpas, hundreds of business executives, scores of ministers. One communiqué. Any news? Last week’s G20 summit in Seoul, Korea marked another grand gathering of economic policy-makers, charged this time with spiking the ‘currency wars’, alleged to have broken out in recent months.One could be forgiven for not being too overwhelmed with worry. If the IMF’s October economic growth update is any guide, we ought not to fret. It puts global growth at 4.8% this year and 4.2% next. Putting that in context, the average since 1970 is 3.7%. Usually it is when growth pushes up to 5% that we need to get worried. At that speed things start to break– we run out of capacity, or labour - prices take off. The IMF also has world trade volume up 11.4% and 7% in 2010 and 2011, against the 40-year average of 6.9%. Of course, we should always be sceptical about the IMF’s forecasts. But if these estimates are in the ballpark, they would be of the ‘not too hot, not too cold’ variety i.e. just right. As for currency wars, it is hard to know who is fighting whom. The US is pushing more liquidity into its banking system while China is keeping currency appreciation to a minimum. To do that China must absorb forex inflows into its economy, tantamount to boosting domestic liquidity. The QSL is from JOIF Fukuoka in Japan on 1413 kHz heard from Seoul in 1999. After the Asian debt crisis I had several trips to South Korea. I would often be jet-lagged flying in from London and would sit in the dead of the night in the Westin Chosun Hotel in Seould listening to Japanese AM stations. This was one of them.

Fed fired up in frenzy

Just as the US Fed embarks on QE2 - another bout of liquidity infusion into the banking sector - US jobs data pick up steam. Jobs are the hottest political/ economic potato in the US and the Fed has a dual mandate - keep inflation under control and keep the economy moving. Because jobs are so sensitive, any delay in recovery in the labour market puts a gun to the Fed's head. And yet, a look at 60 years of data will show you that what's happening in the labour market right now is typical of any post-recession. Jobs are usually slow to recover, and this shock was the worst in (most people's) living memory. It always takes time and the time taken this time is not different from other times. But the Fed feels obliged to act. It has also staked its reputation on avoiding Japan's experience of a 'lost decade' (or two). Japan has made several infusions of liquidity over the years, to little avail. But it started too late and in any case the dynamics of the Japanese economy are different from the USA's. So the Fed will probably do too much for too long. Whatever you say about Japan, the radio stations have a great QSL record. They just about always reply, to me at any rate. This QSL is from JOLF in Tokyo on 1242 kHz AM, heard in 1999. It still come in here in Cape Town from time to time.

No luxury in the Velux 5 Oceans

The Velux 5 Oceans single-handed yacht race is under way. Only 5 entrants this year, in one of the toughest tests around - 30000 miles around the world, alone. They started in La Rochelle and first stop is - where else? - Cape Town. Here the 5 skippers will prime themselves for the gruelling haul across the Southern Ocean to Wellington, New Zealand. In its earlier manifestations, two South African sailors, Bertie Reed and John Martin, were both very competitive, Bertie finishing second in 1983. John Martin made a name for himself in another way, slamming into an iceberg in 1991 while leading and being dramatically rescued by none other than Bertie Reed. The fleet has just passed the Cape Verde Islands on their way into the Doldrums where the winds drop eerily as they push for the Equator. The QSL is from Radio Clube de Cabo Verde, heard here in 1969. Instead of putting my name on the card, they wrote "The Chimes", which was the name of our house. It's ok, I'll answer to "The Chimes", especially for a gem like this one!

One hand clapping in the forest

If a tree falls in the forest and no one hears, does it really fall? What is the sound of one hand clapping? Is the chair you see really a chair, or is it only the dimension you're in? If a big wave breaks on the shore and no one sees, does it really break? If I add another post to my blog and no one reads it is it really a blog? Dinna be stupid, of course it is! Flying in from Johannesburg on Friday evening, the pilot circled out over False Bay to make the approach into Cape Town International from the south. A good north-wester was blowing and the swell was running. I could see sets of waves sequenced out through the bay. Each had a different shape, no two the same. On Saturday afternoon wind and swell were still just right and I had some great rides. The power of a wave rises exponentially. I went out right to the back and waited for the big ones. It's a little frightening when you realise the peak of the wave is starting to curl over and you have just a few seconds to bear off and stay in the swell as it peels along. The energy and sound are exhilirating. With the sea in mind, I can only support the San Francisco Giants in this week's World Series against the Rangers, now that the Yanks are out. The QSL is from KGEI La Voz de la Amistad in San Francisco, heard here in 1968. This is one of quite a few US shortwavers QSLd over the years.

No hope for Suu Kyi

Burma is holding elections next month. 20 years ago was the last time it did so. The winner then was Aung San Suu Kyi. She's been banned or locked up ever since. So we won't be holding our breath for democracy this time either. The military automatically gets 1/4 of the seats. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy, the overwhelming winner last time, is not participating, unless the junta makes major concessions, which seems highly unlikely. There are a number of other parties but their chances are slim, as no foreign observers will be around to see how fair the poll is. The military have a few parties in the running too. Their chances are better! Myanmar, as it is now officially called, is audible here in the afternoons and at night on 49m. There are even English programmes. The QSL is from the Burma Broadcasting Service in 1972. Every evening at 1730 local Cape Town time there would be an English language show, with the last 15 minutes before sign off playing instrumental old standards. They were songs my dad knew well and I'd go and hum them to him to get their names. I must have sent in 7 or 8 reports with this kind of detail and finally got the response. Burma attained independence from British rule in 1948 but the 1972 programme still sounded like an Asian BBC home service!

Will the young 'un take over in Pyongyang?

Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang was the scene of a major military parade this weekend. It was the first time such an event was filmed for western TV. Probable successor to Kim Jong-il - who else but his son, Kim Jong-un, (the "Young 'un" - ha, ha) - appeared with his dad. It's a big planet with a lot of strange things on it, but North Korea has to be one of the strangest. It's next door neighbour, South Korea, is an economic powerhouse that sailed through the recent global credit crunch with barely a blip. Up north, the vice-like grip of the Kim dynasty has ensured that the country slipped steadily down to the bottom rungs of output per capita. The QSL is from the Korean Central Broadcasting System, received in 1967. In those days the South African apartheid regime was fiercely anti-communist. Despite this, here was a schoolboy in Cape Town receiving QSLs from every communist state there was. And these countries were only too keen to oblige. Fortunately, no security policeman ever came knocking on my door!

Bulgaria rules Brazil, OK?

It looks like it will be Dilma Rousseff. How could she lose, with Lula telling Brazilians: 'A vote for Dilma is a vote for me'? Her father emigrated from Bulgaria in the 1930s and she was raised in Belo Horizonte. Two Belo Horizonte stations, Radio Itatiaia and Radio Inconfidencia, come in well here every night on the 49mb. Dilma is riding the crest of the Lula wave, while Brazil is riding the crest of the China wave. When Lula was elected in 2002, the country seemed to be on the brink of default. The benchmark Brazilian C bond was trading at 50c on the dollar and prospects looked bleak. How things have changed! Brazilian stocks are the darlings of the emerging markets now. Without Lula, Dilma would be pretty unelectable. In appearances around the country the people turned out to see him, not her. He has cult status. Like Tony Blair, she has never been elected to office before. No worries, mate: Brazil is on a roll now, with or without her. Or so it is thought. It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see how she's done. The QSL is from Radio Globo in 1968, the first Brazilian station I ever QSLd.