When Irish oil is smiling

Ireland consumes about 140k barrels of oil a day, all imported, so this week's announcement of an offshore field in the Celtic Sea could turn the country into an exporter. A platform in the Barryroe field, 50km off the Cork coast could produce as much as 100k bpd and a number of platforms are possible if Providence Resources can get backing. The discovery is likely to inspire further exploration as well as downstream development and oilfield services. Currently there is only one refinery, fortunately in Cork, close enough to pipe the Barryroe oil. Irish real GDP peaked in 2007 and is still running some 8% shy of that, having flatlined for the past year, so any boost from the oil industry would be welcome. Ireland runs a current account surplus with the latest data showing exports up 18% year-on-year. Imports are running at about EUR 4bn per month with oil making up one-twelfth, about EUR 4bn per annum. So Barryroe would add to the surplus or increase capacity to import other stuff. The positive balance of payments factor distinguishes Ireland from its Eurozone peripheral partners. The Irish 10-year bond yield has fallen dramatically over the past year, from a high of nearly 15% to under 5%, almost identical to Italy's. Economic woes have pushed emigration to the highest for years, especially among the young. But the economy is gradually self-medicating after years of pain and the oil boost (with the potential for more to come) is a sweetener. The QSL is from Radio Telefis Eireann broadcasting on AM. The transmitter on 729 kHz was in Cork, using 10 kW and heard in London in 1996. Both these transmitters have since shut down.