A tale of two Argentine naval vessels

While the Argentine navy's corvette, Espora (ARA P-41), has calmly rested in Simon's Town harbour over the past two weeks, another of its ships, the Libertad, is clogging up Tema, Ghana's main port. This 100-metre long tallship is a training vessel and was seized on 1 October under a court order relating to Argentina's brutal debt default in 2002. Elliott Capital Management, which still owns a piece of Argentina's defaulted debt, has steadfastly pursued a payout despite the exchange into new debt that was effected in 2005. And now, in New York, the US Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that Argentina is barred from giving priority to bondholders who accepted the 2005 debt exchanges that flowed from Argentina's massive sovereign debt default at the beginning of the decade. This is not the end of the saga by any means as Argentina will surely appeal this ruling. But in the meantime, Libertad is blocking berth 11 at Tema and the Ghanaian Ports Authority wants to move it to a quieter part of the harbour. Down in Simon's Town, the P-41 has idled on the outer wall of the harbour and is blocking nobody. In fact it didn't even participate in the latest exercise which involved warships from Brazil, India and South Africa. The QSL is from WPTR in New York, heard on 1540 AM in Cape Town back in 1968.

Kagame and Kabila - could they ever be a dream team?

Much of sub-Saharan Africa is high-growth GDP territory these days, eclipsed only by Asian economies. Rwanda is right up there with the highest, seemingly capable of growing at a 7-8% clip, versus around 5% for the region as a whole, and with only modest inflation to boot. This is a  far cry from the country ravaged by the appalling civil war in 1994 when something like 20% of the population was wiped out. In the aftermath millions more were killed in eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo after Laurent Kabila (father of current DRC president, Joseph Kabila) came to power. Rwanda has gotten great press in recent years, billed by some as 'Africa's greatest success story'. Under the rather authoritarian government of Paul Kagame the economy has made great strides, pursuing a kind of command and control strategy reminiscent of Singapore. It is very strong on regulatory overhaul: it now takes just one day to register a new business. Unfortunately, the conflict in neighbouring DR Congo continues, with the UN now accusing Rwanda of supporting rebels in eastern DRC. This area is immensely rich in minerals and it's likely that the lure of profits in tin, tungsten and tantalum mined in the region is behind the funding for this rebel activity. The potential for these two countries in the next century is potentially enormous if only they could cooperate. Kigali, Rwanda's capital could become the service hub for DRC's eastern mineral wealth, to the benefit of both their populations. The QSL is from Radio Rwanda, heard in Johannesburg in 1992 on the 49mb where it is still active today.

When Irish oil is smiling

Ireland consumes about 140k barrels of oil a day, all imported, so this week's announcement of an offshore field in the Celtic Sea could turn the country into an exporter. A platform in the Barryroe field, 50km off the Cork coast could produce as much as 100k bpd and a number of platforms are possible if Providence Resources can get backing. The discovery is likely to inspire further exploration as well as downstream development and oilfield services. Currently there is only one refinery, fortunately in Cork, close enough to pipe the Barryroe oil. Irish real GDP peaked in 2007 and is still running some 8% shy of that, having flatlined for the past year, so any boost from the oil industry would be welcome. Ireland runs a current account surplus with the latest data showing exports up 18% year-on-year. Imports are running at about EUR 4bn per month with oil making up one-twelfth, about EUR 4bn per annum. So Barryroe would add to the surplus or increase capacity to import other stuff. The positive balance of payments factor distinguishes Ireland from its Eurozone peripheral partners. The Irish 10-year bond yield has fallen dramatically over the past year, from a high of nearly 15% to under 5%, almost identical to Italy's. Economic woes have pushed emigration to the highest for years, especially among the young. But the economy is gradually self-medicating after years of pain and the oil boost (with the potential for more to come) is a sweetener. The QSL is from Radio Telefis Eireann broadcasting on AM. The transmitter on 729 kHz was in Cork, using 10 kW and heard in London in 1996. Both these transmitters have since shut down. 

Gambling on the unemployment conspiracy

The US unemployment rate has dropped below 8% for the first time since 2009. Some suspect a conspiracy to artificially massage this number down prior to the presidential election next month. If you believe it, you're going to see spooks in all sorts of corners. In any case, people don't vote on the basis of a statistic they see on TV, rather it's whether they are feeling good about themselves and the economy. The monthly payrolls data is a mine of information and a spider's web of confusion. For one thing, prior-month data is often revised a lot - in this case another 80k plus jobs were reported for July and August. For another, there are two surveys, covering companies and households. The latter is smaller and far more volatile and the main reason for the decline in the unemployment rate last month. It showed an 873k spike in jobs compared with a 368k dip in August. You can't do much with data like that unless you smooth it (say a 6-month moving average) and even then it's iffy. Anyway the underlying tone of the data wasn't too bad with the employment-population rate for the key 25-54 year old group pushing up to a post-recession high. Also the drag from public sector job cuts appears to have ceased. None of this will tip the balance for Obama on its own. Gamblers' paradise Nevada has the highest unemployment rate of the 50 states by some distance (12.1%) - a boom-bust economy if there ever was one. The QSL is from KROW in Reno, Nevada heard in San Francisco in 1993 on a business trip. The chief engineer, Martin Stabbert, points out in his very nice letter that the beam was to the west so never to be heard from South Africa.