Say hello to jobs

US initial jobless claims plunged below 400k this week, reaching the lowest level since the crunch. If you want regular economic data that gives a clear signal of the direction of the business cycle, you need look no further than this release. Yes, the numbers are revised each week, sometimes by quite a bit. But it's a long-term series that conveys key information about the jobs situation. The renewed dip in this indicator is consistent with GDP growth of over 4% so watch to see how analysts revise their growth numbers up in the new year. Once jobs pick up, consumer confidence follows. They are both lagging cyclical indicators, with jobs leading confidence. The latter has bumped along in a trough for many months but looks set to turn up now. California showed the biggest decline in the week this time. The QSL is from KXBT, Vallejo, CA, near SanFran. I heard it in Sheigra (north-west Scotland) when I was lucky enough to go on a DXpedition with the British DX Club in 1996. It was an early X-bander, operating on 1630 kHz with just 1kW power at the time. Vallejo was an early victim of the credit crunch, filing for bankruptcy in 2008.

There's gold in them thar Madre de Dios

Gold made headlines in 2010, breaking to new highs above $1400/oz at times. The yellow metal is not the key commodity for South Africa it once was. Thirty years ago SA produced over 600 tonnes p.a. of the stuff. Now production is running at barely 200 tonnes. A lot of this is to do with the fact that SA gold is found deep underground, several kilometers in some mines, so getting to it has become increasingly expensive. Some analysts get quite hectic about gold, especially those who have it in for the US Federal Reserve whom they accuse of printing too much paper money. But the truth is that gold has not performed as strongly as some other commodities like steel scrap or even coconut oil (see this link http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=129304). The QSL is a gem from Radio Madre de Dios in south-eastern Peru, heard on the 60mb. There is gold here and much of it is mined illegally by miners who use mercury to dissolve the gold. This is causing environmental degradation in one of the world's beautiful jungles.

London wipe-out, Cape zing

There was a rare north-wester this week and I slipped out early before work to catch a wave at Muizies. In summer the south-easter blows pretty steadily and the onshore wind flattens the waves and creates loads of white-water. The kite-surfers have the place to themselves. When I arrived the wind hadn't fully swung round and the waves were poorly shaped and breaking early. It was hard work just to get out. Then suddenly the NW wind kicked in. The water surface turned glassy and the waves shaped up. There was a fair swell running and it was overcast. The bigger incoming swells stood out a darker, more ominous green signalling a powerful ride if you got your timing right. The QSL is from BBC Radio London, heard in Johannesburg in 1985. London has experienced 100-year cold, snowy weather this week and many holiday-makers failed to make it to the Cape beaches.

Catching the Yule tide

It's Yuletide time again. Here we are at the winter solstice in the northern hemisphere (and summer down here in Cape Town). Yule goes back to pagan times and was a recognition that the days were about to start getting longer. The Yule log these days is a cake but in ancient times would typically be an oak branch to set on the fire which would hopefully burn for a long time and give out good heat. This winter in the north is particularly cold. The amount of snow in London this month is much greater than in any year during the 12 we lived there. It's the second cold winter in a row. Is there any connection with global warming? You have to wonder whether a couple more cold winters won't have people revising their opinions on this thorny subject. Maybe its just a statistical blip in a long cycle. Meanwhile, it's hot in Cape Town but it's been a pretty mild summer so far. The QSL is one of many I collected from UK AM stations in the 1990s. This one was heard just before Christmas 1997 - BBC Radio Derby.

Whales in Betty's Bay and BA

Betty's Bay is about 100km from Cape Town, accessed by a beautiful coastal road that runs vertically above the sea, via Gordon's Bay. In its day it was a whaling station and some of the old installations are still there. Now it is a holiday destination, consisting of a number of vacation homes and a fair-sized village. It is renowned for its strong winds and this weekend was no exception, with the south-easter gusting up to 40 knots. Running along the beach in this is a two-phased experience. It's best to go out into the wind, even if you do find that at times you are barely moving forward, with calves and ankles blasted by a miasma of white sand. Then, turn your back to the wind and take long strides. You float. The whole coastline is famous for its sightings of the southern right whale. They arrive in August to breed and usually hang around until November before heading south towards the Antarctic again. The species is thought to number 12000 and are increasing. We have definitely noticed rising numbers in the past four years. They also frequent the coastlines of Australia, New Zealand and Argentina. The QSL is from Radio El Mundo, Buenos Aires, heard on 6120 kHz here in Cape Town in 1968.

Dallas Fed to the rescue (who?)

What a week! It started off with equity markets in a swoon. The Irish debt package was announced and it went down like a lead balloon. Panic set in. If Euro 85bn wasn't enough, how much was enough? Who's next: Portugal, then Spain, even Belgium? Is there enough money in the world to bail them all out? On the flipside was this steady undertone of good economic data. Early in the week the Dallas Fed survey came out. It looked good. The employment component looked excellent. Who cares about the Dallas Fed survey? Sure, Texas is big, but it's not everything. But Dallas was backed up by Philly Fed and Chicago PMI, along with the national ISM. In all cases the employment components are looking very solid. So it was Euro contagion vs accelerating growth. Then Europe decided to remind us that 'whatever it takes', in place since the credit crunch crunced, is still the mantra. If it comes to that one day the European Central Bank will just put up a couple of trillion and fund the Eurozone bail-out vehicle (EFSF). Europe is not gonna let that grand project go down the drain, no matter what the sceptics say. It's deeply rooted, born out the desire to put generations of devastating wars into the past. The markets rebounded with zeal and ended the week on a strong note. The QSL is from KCBI, Dallas, a Christian short-wave station, heard in Joburg in the 1980s.