Saturday 26 January 2013

Mark Twain in January, May and October


As Mark Twain's Pudd'nhead Wilson said: "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February." It's pretty close to the mark - there ain't really much to say about a particular month, although that won't stop people from saying it. But 2013 has started with a bang. Stocks are up strongly, the best 'January effect' since 1997. Where else are you gonna go when global economic activity is re-accelerating and central bankers are keeping their feet on the gas? Suddenly, there's a convergence of views by global strategists that this is the year of rotation for equities. After a long period where cyclical stocks were under the cosh, now they appear to be emerging from the shadows. In contrast, high-flying consumer stocks had a bit of a wobble in the month as some pundits look ahead to a time when interest rates in rich countries actually may start to rise. No, surely not! Anyway, one is sceptical about such a January effect which originally claimed that stocks rose in January after falling in December as people sold their bad calls to generate tax losses. Locally, the claim is that investors returning from their summer holidays are all fired up with new ideas from tips heard on the beach. Whatever the truth, stocks have actually been rising since mid-November with just a brief downward blip in late-December. There's also supposed to be 'sell in May and go away' and everyone's always a bit nervous in October, when the crashes of 1929, 1987 and 2008 occurred.  Mark Twain was brought up in Hannibal, Missouri. The QSL is from KMOX, St Louis, MO, heard in Morgan Bay in 1987. St Louis is about 100 miles downriver from Hannibal. KMOX is one of the originals, first signing on in 1925.





Saturday 19 January 2013

The Antarctic will be Fiennes and cold

Ranulph Fiennes is en route to Antarctica on yet another caper. This time he's to cross the continent in winter, enduring the most inhospitable conditions imaginable. Transporting the team to its start point in Queen Maud Land is Agulhas, the now-retired trusty South African ice-breaker that long served SA's southern bases on Marion Island and Sanae, the Antarctic base. In a recent BBC News Quiz one panelist meanly quipped that Fiennes has left a body part on every continent, in a lifetime of incredible expeditions. This is a tough one - around 3800km of skiing, with one day's rest of every four. Along the Solar Plateau in mid-winter the thermometer can dip to -90C, with not a hint of sunlight. One can only laud the charity they are supporting, Seeing is Believing, but I've reservations about the whole concept of powered vehicles traversing the pristine continent. Extreme World Races with their Arctic trucks and dices across the continent have pioneered Fiennes' route. His Mobile Vehicle Landtrain will consist of two Caterpillar tractors with plenty of fuel, so the team is not going to freeze to death. I know, it's progress and yes, I've got a car and ships with engines have been travelling to the Antarctic for yonks but I guess it's the same feeling I have about jetskis on lagoons or beach buggies on white sandy beaches. At least Fiennes will be able to claim a genuine first, not like the European explorers of old, like Speke and Livingstone, who competed desperately to be the first to see things which other humans had observed for hundreds of years before. Also unlike Livingstone, the Antarctic team will know exactly where it is, whereas the African explorer became hopelessly lost. The QSL is  a telegram from South Africa's Sanae Base in Antarctica, using just 1 kWatt, heard in 1985 in a link-up with Derdepoort to facilitate weekly radio-telephone calls for the team at the base. It's one of a bunch of Antarctic radio QSLs collected in the 1980s.

Monday 7 January 2013

Sweet audio from the sugar bird


It seems the human race is becoming more and more hard of hearing as it evolves. New cinema complexes install sound systems that blast the message across at excessive decibel levels, with too much treble. I noticed this in London and now a new local complex in Cape Town is following suite. Nature provides a more balanced sound mix, unchanged for millions of years. As the summer cycle reaches its peak the bird life in Cape Town thrives. Last evening we saw a flock of Cape sugar birds hopping from tree to tree making its way south to Cape Point. These beautiful creatures have long tail feathers, with the males reaching up to 40cm, and make a complex range of calls labeled as 'grating, chirping, chipping and twanging' by Roberts Book of Birds. They are endemic to the the Western Cape, thriving in the local flora known as fynbos. We have fynbos Proteas in our garden which provide nectar for their long beaks. Also knocking around is the common migratory barn swallow with the swept back wings. It summers in South Africa, often as far south as Cape Town and is known to come from places like Wales in the UK, a journey of 6000 miles, completed over two months, feeding on insects in the air and beating its little wings 5-7 times a second. The QSL is from The Magic 756 in Wales, using 1 kW and heard in Kent on AM in 1996.

Thursday 3 January 2013

Keeping lite in Plett

Awoke to rain at dawn - a north-wester! Unusual at this time of the year and I rushed to Muizenberg to catch the early wave. It was perfect, glassy 3-4 foot swell with some bigger sets at the back. Table Mountain was covered in cloud but out in the water a warm, milky sun blinked through. We're just back from Plettenberg Bay, or Plett, one of SA's most popular watering holes, crammed with holiday-makers mainly from up north around Johannesburg, with loads of SUV's, Mercs and Beamers, flashy gear and general signs of conspicuous materialism. When you're at a sunny holiday resort over Christmas and New Year, with family, some not seen for years, it's hard not to consume far too much. It's a good way to get the belly to start hanging over the belt. SA was an early-adopter of lite beers and I stuck to the 2.5% alcohol Windhoek lite all through. Not sure if it made much difference but I sure felt virtuous! And it still tastes like beer. Each can carries about 2/3 of the calories of an ordinary lager. To round off a nice holiday equities surged on the first day of trading in the New Year with the FTSE 100 closing above 6000 for the first time in yonks and the local FTSE/JSE All Share breaking to an all-time high above 40000. Plett was named by Baron Joachim van Plettenberg, Governor of the Cape in 1779, after himself! The QSL is from a Dutch pirate station Radio Blue Star, using 50 watts, heard on short-wave in Kent in 1996. It was based in Zwolle where van Plettenberg was laid to rest.