The ABC Radio of a perfect wave

In each surf session there is always one wave you remember best. Early yesterday morning a light nor' wester wafted over Muizenberg and I went out early. The water was c-c-cold and during gaps between waves I squeezed my fingers in the armpits of my wetsuit to keep the circulation going. The sets were small but well-shaped. On this one wave, as I took off right, a burst of fragmented sunrays exploded through an opening in the clouds. The newly-risen sun was at eye-level, vividly picking out the shape of the smooth swell in front of me as I zig-zagged ahead of the white water curling along behind. It was a wave that kept on giving and I rode it three-quarters of the way to the shore before it finally closed out. Still earlier I'd received an email from ABC Radio, Northern Territory in Australia about a reception report I'd sent. Their stations are currently booming in here at night on short-wave 60mb and I'm hearing about things like Darwin's Ladies Day and Australia's new carbon tax, as well as old pop songs by the likes of Donovan. The QSL is from ABC Alice Springs heard on AM in Morgan Bay in 1993, using just 2kW.

The As and Bs of Athens to Buenos Aires

Greece may look at Argentina and wonder if it shouldn't just default. After all, Argentina reneged on $81bn of sovereign debt in 2002. For a while the economy tanked but then followed many years of 8% growth. Even in the credit crunch it scraped through with around 1% and the following year it rebounded 9%, more than just about any other economy. Is the Argentina model a desirable one for Greece to follow? Don't forget that the Argentine default was accompanied by a 75% devaluation of the peso. This left the country hugely competitive relative to its neighbours and other big exporters. Also the Argentine collapse was a slow-motion affair. Investors could see it coming for a long time so by the time it happened the event caused very little contagion. Greece also has a pegged currency and has also been imploding for some time but a huge devaluation like Argentina's would cause both significant damage to Greece but also collateral damage to a number of other Eurozone economies. Its debt is a multiple of Argentina's. The key is once again, the banking sector. Banks are leveraged and the multiples involved in the Eurozone periphery coutries are breath-taking, relative to their capital. Greece has to be let down over many years. See my article: http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=149092 The QSL is from Radio Buenos Aires, heard in Joburg on 1350 AM in 1987.

Emperor Nero ensconced in Washington

The pols are certainly having a ball in Washington, taking each other to the edge on the US debt ceiling. Every day we hear that a new deal may be in the offing only to find later that they are as far apart as ever. This is a collective Nero fiddling while Rome burns. A debt default, or even fear of it, would for starters wreak havoc in the repo market, widely used by the banks for funding. Then we have the Chinese and Japanese getting jittery about their holdings of Treasuries and thinking of new ways of not buying them in future. No doubt, this IS a very important debate. At some point soon America must confront the fact that its deficit is way too high. Both entitlement spending cuts and tax increases are unavoidable. My leaning is towards the former and the Democrats, Obama in particular, know this too. But taking it to the edge like this reinforces thoughts about American incompetence. When you're in America it seems like such an organised society but the debt overhang and policy paralysis make it seem that the country has really lost the plot. The QSL is from WTOP in Washington DC heard in Cape Town way back in 1968. The revenue stamps show that I had to pay a few cents because Granville didn't cough up enough for the postcard!

Cape to Cameroon

An extraordinary week in Cape Town. It's mid-winter but the temps have exceeded 20 degrees every day. Last Sunday it was 27 and there was a crush on the beaches as people poured out of their homes. This morning there was a light nor' wester and a decent swell at Muizies. I got out there at about 0830 and caught many waves over about two hours. Water temp was about 16, fine with a wetsuit and the sun shining full on. Also during the week the Cameroon government placed a full-page ad in the London Financial Times encouraging investment in its economy. There appear to be many projects on the go with China seemingly very much involved. Hu Jintao visited Cameroon a couple of years back. There's a big highway project linking the cities, power and mining etc. A picture of none other than Paul Biya, president since 1982, featured in the ad. No sign of him leaving anytime soon! The QSL is from Radio Yaounde, heard in London in 1996. I'd tried for many years to QSL this and other Cameroon stations. To get this one I went round to the Cameroon embassy in Holland Park, near where we lived. I played some of the staff a recording I'd made of R Yaounde and begged them to contact the station on my behalf. They obliged and a couple of months later I got this official QSL card. Persistence!

It's Italy I tell you

Gosh! This is getting serious. Until now I've had the view that the Eurozone peripheral debt crisis would be contained. After all, Greek, Portuguese and Irish sovereign debt is only 7% of total Eurozone GDP. It's containable. A Euro fiscal union could easily cope with it. Structures to reduce debt and interest payments are quite feasible and have been set up in other situations. During the 1980s Latin American bank loan crisis, Citigroup and other banks were effectively bust but at the end of the decade the Brady bond mechanism changed the landscape for debtors and creditors. So far, Eurozone politicians have done the right thing each time they've looked over the abyss. Even this week, Italy passed an austerity budget with support across the political spectrum. Problem is that Italy's debt is more than Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain altogether. It can't be 'bailed out.' A negative, self-feeding loop is possible if Italian bond yields start spiralling up. It's scary. Politicians can be overwhelmed by events. See - Russian debt crisis, WW1, etc. The QSL is from Radio Maria, a religious broadcaster in Italy with just 1 kW, heard in London on 41mb in 1997.

Yingluck lucks in

Thailand's election threw up a surprise. Yingluck Shinawatra, smart business woman and sister to Thaksin, came storming home. Thailand has experienced loads of political turmoil in recent years including a military coup in 2006. In fact it has a history of serial government change until recently - mainly military. There's also a monarchy which is strongly protected against criticism. Thaksin was hugely popular in his time especially outside of the urban elite and his sister has capitalised on his reputation. This raises the possibility that he may return from exile and escape fraud charges - in particular the huge tax-free profit his family made from the sale of Shin Corp. His return would not please a large section of the Thai community and could cause the ongoing friction between Yellows and Reds to continue. But Yingluck's win was comprehensive and it may this time lead to greater stability. The stock market liked the news jumping sharply on the day. See my article on Thailand here: http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=148042 The QSL is from Radio Thailand heard on 31mb in London in 1996. I'd heard them many times before, going back to the 1960s but really struggled to get a reply. Thai AM stations are audible here in Cape Town from time to time.

Athens - kicking the can can be fun

Another long blog break and hey presto it's July! We've moved house, sent half our chattels to London, half to Simonstown. We found homes for our dog and cat. We're selling two cars, made umpteen trips to the dump. Change is good they say and it's true but it's also daunting and sad. I had a long run through the suburbs of Rondebosch to say goodbye to all the places I know so well there. Matt, our son, has skipped the nest and is schmoozing around Europe with a couple of mates. They started in Athens and saw some of the demos as parliament debated yet another austerity programme. Once again Greece stepped back from the brink. People say this is just kicking the can down the road. I say yes it's true and what's wrong with that? When I was a kid I used to kick cans down the road and it was fun. Sometimes I'd score a goal. They have no choice. It's the politics stupid. It takes time for politicians to make the compromises necessary to restructure Greek debt in an orderly way, but it can be done. In the meantime keep on kicking. The QSL dates back to 1968 from the Telcoms utility OTE. This is one of the state assets Greece must sell in order to help reduce its sovereign debt.