Bye bye Ben Ali bye bye

In South Africa, you will find the most southerly tip of the African continent at Cape Agulhas. In Tunisia you find the northernmost tip at Cape Blanc. I doubt that President Ben Ali was thinking of this when he skipped the country last week after 23 years in power. His overthrow was swift and jostling to establish a new government is under way. I visited Tunis in 1998 and spent time with some of the local stock exchange people. Already then the share trading system was very modern and automated. The island of Djerba off Tunisia's coast in the Mediterraniean is a stunning resort venue and I spent a great week there, mainly sailing Hobie Cats. The weather conditions were perfect. Plenty of sunshine and every afternoon the Sirocco would pick up steadily making for ideal Hobie conditions. At that time Ben Ali had already been in power for 11 years and he still had another 12 to go. The QSL is from La Telediffusion Tunisienne. This was one of the stations I heard and wrote to many times over the years without a peep. My visit to Tunisia motivated me to try again and suddenly there it was.

The sorry state of Illinois

The credit crunch has brought the finances of many US states into sharp focus. None more so than Illinois. There is even an activist non-partisan organisation which calls itself Illinois is Broke which highlights the mess the finances are in. Total debt is over $170bn and is rising at around $15bn per annum. During the boom years many states and countries were able to hide behind strong tax revenue growth and ignore unsustainable spending. When the crunch came the spending was left high and dry along with the debt as the revenues dried up. In Illinois' case that debt is equivalent to $25k per household. That's a lot in a state where the per capita income is around $41k. The retirement age for public sector workers is just 55 - look to a big increase in that in the years ahead. Illinois and other crisis states like California are interesting because they highlight the problems of countries like Greece and Ireland in the Eurozone. US states are now irrevocably part of the Union. Greece and Ireland could yet pull out (I think they won't). In the 1800s it was by no means certain that US states were permanently in but they are now. The QSL is from the Chicago, IL station WMVP, a sports broadcaster on AM 1000 heard in Cape Town 2007.

Could condemned combi contact Cocos?

David Klatzow, the South African forensic scientist, has a new book out - 'Steeped in Blood.' One chapter deals with the SA Airways Helderberg crash, when a Boeing combi plunged into the sea near Mauritius, in 1987. He alleges that the Margo Commission which investigated the disaster was a cover up. According to him the fire which ultimately downed the plane started not too long after take-off in Taipei and the SA authorities instructed the pilot continue the flight towards Mauritius. The reason for this was that there was illegal rocket fuel on board (which had caused the fire). As such, if the pilot had landed at an Asian airport the illegal fuel would have been discovered and no insurance would have been paid out. Even though this was in the sanctions period, SA aircraft (designated 'Springbok') would typically call in to flight controllers along the route - aeradios like Lumpur, Darwin and Cocos were easy to hear in Cape Town. In addition, any instructions from SA would also have used an HF frequency and so could have been easily heard by amateurs and professionals. The truth is unlikely to come out but something strange happened on that flight. The QSL is from Cocos Aeradio on the tiny Cocos and Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean. It refers to a contact with a Springbok flight, heard in 1986 in Cape Town.

Gbagbo won't gbo

The Ivory Coast presidential elections went pear-shaped. In a close poll, challenger Alassane Ouattara was deemed to have won. But incumbent Laurent Gbabgo refused to accept the result. Then followed a farce with both 'winners' having themselves sworn in in separate ceremonies. The international community and neighbouring west African states (Ecowas) have turned against Gbabgo, with the latter threatening to remove him by force. Gbagbo, a history PhD, originally opposed Ivorian strong man Felix Houphouet-Boigny in the 1990 presidential election but lost easily. He tried again in 2000 but the military leader Robert Buei claimed victory. Gbagbo's supporters took to the streets and turned Buei out. Civil war followed between the Muslim north and Christian south. A sort of peace was eventually restored and after several postponements a new election was announced for 2010. The country again stands on the brink of turmoil. Ivory Coast produces over a third of the world's cocoa and the post-election uncertainty has helped push the price up towards $3000/tonne. Chocolate-lovers beware! The QSL is from Radio Abidjan, heard in Cape Town in 1970, when Houphouet-Boigny was still well in control.

Say hello to jobs

US initial jobless claims plunged below 400k this week, reaching the lowest level since the crunch. If you want regular economic data that gives a clear signal of the direction of the business cycle, you need look no further than this release. Yes, the numbers are revised each week, sometimes by quite a bit. But it's a long-term series that conveys key information about the jobs situation. The renewed dip in this indicator is consistent with GDP growth of over 4% so watch to see how analysts revise their growth numbers up in the new year. Once jobs pick up, consumer confidence follows. They are both lagging cyclical indicators, with jobs leading confidence. The latter has bumped along in a trough for many months but looks set to turn up now. California showed the biggest decline in the week this time. The QSL is from KXBT, Vallejo, CA, near SanFran. I heard it in Sheigra (north-west Scotland) when I was lucky enough to go on a DXpedition with the British DX Club in 1996. It was an early X-bander, operating on 1630 kHz with just 1kW power at the time. Vallejo was an early victim of the credit crunch, filing for bankruptcy in 2008.

There's gold in them thar Madre de Dios

Gold made headlines in 2010, breaking to new highs above $1400/oz at times. The yellow metal is not the key commodity for South Africa it once was. Thirty years ago SA produced over 600 tonnes p.a. of the stuff. Now production is running at barely 200 tonnes. A lot of this is to do with the fact that SA gold is found deep underground, several kilometers in some mines, so getting to it has become increasingly expensive. Some analysts get quite hectic about gold, especially those who have it in for the US Federal Reserve whom they accuse of printing too much paper money. But the truth is that gold has not performed as strongly as some other commodities like steel scrap or even coconut oil (see this link http://www.businessday.co.za/Articles/Content.aspx?id=129304). The QSL is a gem from Radio Madre de Dios in south-eastern Peru, heard on the 60mb. There is gold here and much of it is mined illegally by miners who use mercury to dissolve the gold. This is causing environmental degradation in one of the world's beautiful jungles.

London wipe-out, Cape zing

There was a rare north-wester this week and I slipped out early before work to catch a wave at Muizies. In summer the south-easter blows pretty steadily and the onshore wind flattens the waves and creates loads of white-water. The kite-surfers have the place to themselves. When I arrived the wind hadn't fully swung round and the waves were poorly shaped and breaking early. It was hard work just to get out. Then suddenly the NW wind kicked in. The water surface turned glassy and the waves shaped up. There was a fair swell running and it was overcast. The bigger incoming swells stood out a darker, more ominous green signalling a powerful ride if you got your timing right. The QSL is from BBC Radio London, heard in Johannesburg in 1985. London has experienced 100-year cold, snowy weather this week and many holiday-makers failed to make it to the Cape beaches.